An Old Resistance Hurdle Is Back and Could Stall Bitcoin’s Price Rally

[Flickr / <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/revdave/463610938/in/photolist-GY8o3-fdTQxU-jL9LNX-7w6XwL-bzCtcn-my6DVw-84VQLx-cN1T2q-8nvLAj-Go96Ld-8TUMZ-n4A1vE-9LACQ4-6qncZL-99AihH-6uj62b-H9y4B-bmHArb-idE3hg-bzCuBV-bzCume-bmHD9Y-cd8S1Q-5eqdDh-9HbqHm-bzCvr4-bXdvNX-5fdBXy-bmHEi1-8fdmSc-4FDB1G-6Dzm17-6DzkY1-bmHDny-bzCtVt-bzCwDr-c1JBUY-bzCtGR-bzCu7t-rhoPuC-m71BSk-4e7vch-5DTofF-c1JBAG-8oLEAL-c1JBdW-c1JCg7-bmHCkN-oeAyh-bmHB2j">David Morris</a>]

Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-week price rally now faces a former support-turned-resistance level that repeatedly capped gains in 2018.

The crypto market leader closed (UTC) yesterday at $3,965, representing a 1.73 percent gain on a weekly basis, according to Bitstamp data. That was the fourth straight weekly gain and the longest winning streak since April 2018.

With strong volumes backing bitcoin’s move to a three-week high of $4,040 over the weekend, the case for an extension of the ongoing recovery rally from January lows looks strong.

However, a long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change above $4,236 may remain elusive for few weeks, as the 21-month simple moving average (SMA) – a technical line which acted as strong resistance in 2018 – is currently located at $4,073.

More importantly, the average line is still trending south in favor of the bears, and bitcoin is not likely to breach it with a 90-degree rally.

Further, with BTC struggling to hold on to gains above $4,000 for the third day running, the bullish momentum is beginning to wane.

As of writing, the BTC is changing hands at $3,955 on Bitstamp, having hit a high of $4,016 earlier today.

Weekly chart

On the weekly chart, bitcoin printed bullish higher lows along the 21-week SMA throughout the 2016-2017 uptrend. The average support was breached on Jan. 29, 2018, and has reversed rallies ever since.

As such, a convincing move above that SMA, currently at $4,073, could be considered an early sign of a long-term bullish reversal.

It is often observed that markets tend to consolidate post-break above a downward sloping MA and pick up a strong bid once the average has shed bearish bias (bottomed out).

For instance, BTC jumped above the descending 100-day MA on Feb. 19, but the follow-through quickly fizzled out near $4,200 and prices fell back to the long-term MA on March 4. More importantly, bitcoin lacked clear directional bias and rose back to $4,000 only after the average turned flat on March 14.

Thus, any break above the 21-week SMA needs to be viewed with caution as long as the average line is trending south. A repeated rejection at the average line could invite selling pressure, as seen in November.

Daily chart

On the daily, BTC closed above $3,950 (Mar. 9 high) on Saturday, bolstering the short-term bullish setup as indicated by both the ascending trendline and the upward sloping 5- and 10-day MAs.

So far, however, the follow-through has been anything but bullish, which adds credence to the possibility of a pause in upward momentum suggested by the weekly chart.

Source: An Old Resistance Hurdle Is Back and Could Stall Bitcoin’s Price Rally