The same talk of Bitcoin being in a bubble has been dogging it since late 2013, and many time before and after that. The talk remains today as Bitcoin continues to smash barrier leaving the pessimists asking: ‘When will we hear the pop?’
Yet, Bubble or not, Bitcoin seems unperturbed about the negative press, only focusing on the huge adoption and the increase in promising market conditions. It is, however, even on the upswings, a scary ride.
It is probably prudent to understand what would happen if there was a catastrophic failure and the Bitcoin market did pop like all the others it has been compared to.
Risk to the global economy
The obvious starting point would be to discuss what would happen to all those who invested loads of money into Bitcoin if it collapsed. That is simple though, they would lose money. It is more interesting to examine the effect on the global economy of this revolutionary monetary system.
In all honesty, if Bitcoin was wiped from the face of the earth, the global economy would barely even know it had gone. Bitcoin is minuscule in comparison to some of the other big market players out there. The residential real estate market is over 500 times bigger than the Bitcoin one.
Comparing the cryptocurrency market cap and the money involved – just over $350 bln – to the money that was in the dotcom bubble, it is nearly negligible.
Adrian Lee, a senior lecturer in finance at the University of Technology in Sydney, explains in an Australian example:
“So, it wouldn’t affect the Australian dollar I’d say because nobody really uses it at the moment. If you think about it, there’s trillions of trading in the Australian dollar whereas Bitcoin is at most worth $200 bln at total, so it’s hardly anything compared to the trillions in foreign exchange.”
Additionally, lessons seemed to have been learned in the property market bust of 2008, or it may be that Bitcoin is a different asset, but it is unlikely that there is much borrowing going on to buy Bitcoin…