In the previous BTC-USD market analysis, we discussed a macro pattern forming, called a “symmetrical triangle.” A symmetrical triangle (shown in red) is a directionally agnostic consolidation pattern. Until this weekend, the market hadn’t decided whether it was going to break up or break down out of the pattern. Over the weekend, the bitcoin market saw a very strong push on very high volume through the bottom support of the triangle:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 12-Hour Candles, Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown
The implications of this consolidation pattern breaking down have potentially devastating ramifications for the crypto market across the board. With patterns like a symmetrical triangle, there is a measured move that will give insight into a potential price target that will play out upon the breakout. In our case the measured move is a staggering $5,500 move. If the triangle had broken to the top, we could have expected to see a $5,500 move to the top. However, since we broke to the bottom of this pattern, we could potentially be heading for prices ranging from $1,500 – $3,000. Whether that target becomes fully realized remains to be seen, but those prices are not out of the question.
When we look at current support levels that may impede the downward motion, a few tests need to be broken before the full-fledged bearish pressure really begins to manifest in the market.
Our previous low at $6,450 was the lower boundary of an accumulation trading range that caused the market to make a very sizeable rally, testing the $10,000 range. Breaking this price level would undoubtedly send a cascade of stop-market orders, as this is a line-in-the-sand-type of price level: It’s where the bears previously decided they would no longer sell below that range and where the bulls decided it was a good entry point for long positions…